Estimates of Clinical Trial Probabilities of Success (PoS)

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Note: The phase 1 to approval PoS calculated using the path-by-path approach is NOT not the product of PoS12, PoS23 and PoS3A. Please see the FAQs for more details.

Estimates of PoS, Rare Diseases – 2024Q3 Update

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Estimates of PoS, Regional – 2024Q3 Update

This table may reflect potential inaccuracies due to limited data availability for certain regions within the Citeline dataset.

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Time-Series Estimates of Overall Phase-to-Phase PoS, 3-Year Rolling Window – 2024Q3 Update

To view time-series estimates, hover over graph with your cursor.

NOTE: Because trials included in our dataset may be part of development programs that are still in progress, we’ve included upper and lower bounds—indicated with the shaded areas—that assume that the trials either all succeed (upper bound) or all fail (lower bound).

Due to the “boundary effect” bias (see FAQ #9), PoS estimates in the most recent years are inflated. To address this issue—starting with this 2022Q1 update—we compute a bias-adjustment factor using historical data and multiply the PoS in recent years by this factor, yielding the dashed-line estimates. Unadjusted PoS estimates are displayed in the dotted line.

Unless otherwise stated, we present our path-by-path estimates of the probabilities of success using the latest data snapshot from Citeline’s Pharmaprojects. Updates are based on data as of 30 September 2024.

S.E. = Standard Error; A = Approval.